Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
