Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
